The 2023 Nigerian Presidential election is fast approaching and the race is already heating up. With the current President, Muhammadu Buhari, unable to run for a third term, the competition is wide open. There are a number of potential candidates who have already declared their intention to run, and the race is expected to be a close one. In this article, we will take a closer look at the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election and analyze the chances of winning for each of the candidates.
The first candidate to consider is Atiku Abubakar. He is a well-known figure in Nigerian politics. He served as Vice President from 1999 to 2007 under President Olusegun Obasanjo. He has since become a prominent business leader and philanthropist. He has a strong base of support in the northern part of the country especially the North East. He is the candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the major opposition party in Nigeria. His running mate, Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, is a savvy politician from the South-South region of the country. Abubakar is seen as a moderate candidate and has a good chance of winning the election.
From the dynamics, analysts believe that the path to victory for Atiku will be a win in the North East, North Central, South-South, and South-Eastern regions of the country. This prediction is hampered by the emergence of former Governor Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) who is from the South East and gaining momentum in the Southern part of the country as well as the North Central.
The PDP also has problems with some of the southern governors in the PDP-run states which will reduce the support for the party in a Presidential bid. As it stands today, I believe that PDP is on track to win 3 - 4 states in the North East, 2 – 3 states in the North West, 2 – 3 astates in the North Central, 1 -2 states in the South West, 5 – 6 states in the South–South and 1 – 2 states in the South East. This will give the PDP 14 – 20 state victories which is great in a 3-horse race but not too good in a 2-horse race.
The second candidate to consider is Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the former governor of Lagos State. He is one of the most talked-about contenders and a prominent figure in the All Progressives Congress (APC). He is seen as a reformer, and served as the governor of Lagos State from 1999 to 2007, where he implemented a number of initiatives that earned him the nickname, "Jagaban of Lagos". Tinubu has remained a prominent figure in the APC, and he is widely seen as a major power broker in the party. His long history of political success gives him a strong base of support within and outside his party.
One of the biggest challenges Tinubu will face is the fact that he is not from the north of Nigeria, which is the traditional stronghold of the ruling APC. He will require surrogates in the North to deliver him victory in that region. Additionally, Tinubu's age and health could be a factor, as some voters have questioned these factors in recent times.
Despite all these issues, Tinubu is still considered a front-runner due to the support of the majority of the Northern governors and the fact that APC has the power of incumbency. I believe that the APC is on track to win 2 - 3 states in the North East, 4 – 5 states in the North West, 3 – 4 states in the North Central, 4 – 5 states in the South West, 0 – 1 state in the South–South and 0 – 1 state in the South East. This will give the APC 13 – 19 states victory which is great because most of the states are in populous regions of the country but not too good in a 2-horse race. Overall, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has a strong chance of winning the 2023 Nigeria Presidential elections. His long history of political success, his popularity in the politics of Nigeria, and his strong base of support within the APC all give him a good chance of success.
One of the leading contenders in the 2023 Presidential election is Peter Obi. Obi was the governor of Anambra State from 2006 to 2014 and was widely praised for his successful tenure. During his time in office, he implemented a number of reforms that improved the state’s education ranking and infrastructure. He also worked to reduce corruption and improve security in the state.
In 2019, Obi was chosen as the vice-presidential candidate for the PDP and he campaigned vigorously for the party. Obi has a strong base of supporters in the South-East region of Nigeria, which could be a major advantage for him. It appears that Obi is popular among the Nigerian youths and possibly those in the diaspora. He is also well-known and respected throughout the country, which could help him gain votes from other regions.
Additionally, Obi has a good track record of success in office and has a strong understanding of the issues facing Nigeria. This could give him an edge over his opponents. In a free and fair election, devoid of intimidation and vote buying, I would agree with most polls that have put him ahead in the race. However, we still have electoral malpractices in the country and a good section of the country still holds on to tribal and religious sentiments. This is why I think he will have a good showing in the Southern part of the country and maybe the North central predominantly Christian population. Overall, I think he could just win the South Eastern States at least or at most 15 States in South East, South-South, and North Central part of Nigeria.
Finally, the fourth candidate to consider is Rabiu Kwankwaso. Kwankwaso is a former governor of Kano and has a strong base of support in the North West. Kwankwaso is also a strong advocate for the rights of the people especially the rights of women and children in Nigeria. He is seen as a populist and is backed by the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). Kwankwaso is seen as a strong contender in this election as he has a strong base of support in the North generally and is seen as a credible candidate. However, outside of Kano, I don’t see him doing well in other states. Even opinion polls do not put him in the conversation at this level in this election.
Overall, the 2023 Nigerian presidential election is likely to be a close one. All four candidates have a good chance of winning and it is difficult to predict who will come out on top. However, it is clear that the race is likely to be a competitive one and the outcome will depend on the strength of each candidate’s base of support.
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